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Experts target end of year, 2012 for recovery

January 19, 2011 - Buyers won't be moving into homes at a rate strong enough to spur overall housing recovery until at least the end of this year, said a report.

Though unemployment and a high supply of distressed properties have improved over the past 12 months, they remain the biggest threats to the housing market, according to analysts with the Concord Group. The firm's January housing outlook added that early projections show home sales in 2010 reached near record lows, falling 75 percent from their peak in 2005. That will give the housing market a long road to travel on the way back to sustainable growth.

Housing construction will remain slow, said the report, and demand for new homes shouldn't hit its peak until the end of this year at the earliest. Given that demand for newly-built homes usually precedes a total recovery by about 12 months, that puts the housing market on pace to find its footing by the end of 2012. Communities with lower inventories and improved fundamentals could reach that point sooner, said the report.

A recent report by Fannie Mae had a similar estimation, showing that relocation activity should push home sales higher by 4 percent this year and 11 percent by 2012.
 

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